Nairobi, Kenya, October 2025 — A new opinion poll conducted by Vision Polls between September 14th and October 20th, 2025, shows that James Gakuya has taken an early lead in the Nairobi gubernatorial race, commanding a strong 46% of voter support if elections were held today.
The survey, which covered all wards in Nairobi County, was conducted through computer-assisted telephone interviews and achieved a 96% response rate. A total of 4,000 respondents—representative of adult Kenyans aged 18 years and above based on the 2019 National Census—participated in the poll. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS Version 27 to ensure high accuracy.
Survey Results:
| Candidate | Percentage Support |
|---|---|
| James Gakuya | 46% |
| Babu Owino | 31% |
| Johnson Sakaja | 9% |
| Agnes Kagure | 7% |
| Irungu Nyakera | 5% |
| Undecided | 2% |
Why Voters Favor Gakuya
According to respondents, Embakasi North MP James Gakuya is seen as a champion for the “common mwananchi.” His vocal stance against the alleged harassment of hawkers by Governor Johnson Sakaja’s administration has earned him significant grassroots support.
Residents also cited Gakuya’s development record in Embakasi North—particularly in infrastructure, issuance of bursaries, and timely response to community issues—as a strong foundation for his rising popularity.
As Chair of the Trade Committee, Gakuya has been lauded for defending business-friendly policies and ensuring that no regulations detrimental to small traders are introduced. Many Nairobi residents perceive him as approachable, action-oriented, and inclusive, often offering assistance across political divides.
Babu Owino: Strong Second
Coming in second with 31%, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino remains a vocal figure on issues affecting city residents. Respondents credited him for his outspokenness during the Embakasi fire tragedy, his opposition to unpopular county policies, and his ongoing education initiatives such as bursaries for needy students.
Sakaja’s Declining Popularity
Current Governor Johnson Sakaja trails with only 9% support. Many respondents described his tenure as “a failure,” citing corruption, eviction of hawkers, discrimination, absenteeism, and arrogance as key issues affecting his administration.
Other Contenders
Agnes Kagure secured 7%, with voters acknowledging her efforts to empower youth and women, provide food to vulnerable families, and support children in slum areas.
Irungu Nyakera followed closely with 5%, earning recognition for his programs promoting youth and women’s empowerment and improving education standards.
A small portion of respondents (2%) remained undecided, saying they were waiting to see if new candidates would emerge.
Conclusion
The poll indicates a clear shift in Nairobi’s political landscape, with James Gakuya positioning himself as the people’s favorite ahead of the 2027 elections. His focus on inclusivity, fairness, and grassroots development seems to resonate strongly with city residents seeking change and accountability in county leadership.